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    vCJD risk in the Republic of Ireland.

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    Authors
    Harney, Michael S
    Ghani, Azra C
    Donnelly, C A
    Walsh, Rory McConn
    Walsh, Michael
    Howley, Rachel
    Brett, Francesca
    Farrell, Michael
    Affiliation
    CJD Surveillance Unit, Beaumont Hospital, Dublin, Ireland. michaelsharney@eircom.net
    Issue Date
    2003-11-26
    MeSH
    Animals
    Cattle
    Creutzfeldt-Jakob Syndrome
    Encephalopathy, Bovine Spongiform
    Food Contamination
    Humans
    Incidence
    Ireland
    Meat Products
    Models, Biological
    Risk Factors
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    Citation
    vCJD risk in the Republic of Ireland. 2003, 3:28 BMC Infect. Dis.
    Journal
    BMC infectious diseases
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10147/95252
    DOI
    10.1186/1471-2334-3-28
    PubMed ID
    14641933
    Abstract
    BACKGROUND: The Republic of Ireland has the second highest incidence of BSE worldwide. Only a single case of vCJD has been identified to date. METHODS: We estimate the total future number of clinical cases of vCJD using an established mathematical model, and based on infectivity of bovine tissue calculated from UK data and on the relative exposure to BSE contaminated meat. RESULTS: We estimate 1 future clinical case (95% CI 0-15) of vCJD in the Republic of Ireland. Irish exposure is from BSE infected indigenous beef products and from imported UK beef products. Additionally, 2.5% of the Irish population was exposed to UK beef through residing in the UK during the 'at-risk' period. The relative proportion of risk attributable to each of these three exposures individually is 2:2:1 respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The low numbers of future vCJD cases estimated in this study is reassuring for the Irish population and for other countries with a similar level of BSE exposure.
    Language
    en
    ISSN
    1471-2334
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1186/1471-2334-3-28
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