• Comparing primary prevention with secondary prevention to explain decreasing coronary heart disease death rates in Ireland, 1985-2000.

      Kabir, Zubair; Bennett, Kathleen; Shelley, Emer; Unal, Belgin; Critchley, Julia A; Capewell, Simon; Harvard School of Public Health, Division of Public Health Practice, Boston, USA. zkabir@hsph.harvard.edu <zkabir@hsph.harvard.edu> (2007)
      BACKGROUND: To investigate whether primary prevention might be more favourable than secondary prevention (risk factor reduction in patients with coronary heart disease(CHD)). METHODS: The cell-based IMPACT CHD mortality model was used to integrate data for Ireland describing CHD patient numbers, uptake of specific treatments, trends in major cardiovascular risk factors, and the mortality benefits of these specific risk factor changes in CHD patients and in healthy people without recognised CHD. RESULTS: Between 1985 and 2000, approximately 2,530 fewer deaths were attributable to reductions in the three major risk factors in Ireland. Overall smoking prevalence declined by 14% between 1985 and 2000, resulting in about 685 fewer deaths (minimum estimate 330, maximum estimate 1,285) attributable to smoking cessation: about 275 in healthy people and 410 in known CHD patients. Population total cholesterol concentrations fell by 4.6%, resulting in approximately 1,300 (minimum estimate 1,115, maximum estimate 1,660) fewer deaths attributable to dietary changes(1,185 in healthy people and 115 in CHD patients) plus 305 fewer deaths attributable to statin treatment (45 in people without CHD and 260 in CHD patients). Mean population diastolic blood pressure fell by 7.2%, resulting in approximately 170 (minimum estimate 105, maximum estimate 300) fewer deaths attributable to secular falls in blood pressure (140 in healthy people and 30 in CHD patients), plus approximately 70 fewer deaths attributable to antihypertensive treatments in people without CHD. Of all the deaths attributable to risk factor falls, some 1,715 (68%) occurred in people without recognized CHD and 815(32%) in CHD patients. CONCLUSION: Compared with secondary prevention, primary prevention achieved a two-fold larger reduction in CHD deaths. Future national CHD policies should therefore prioritize nationwide interventions to promote healthy diets and reduce smoking.
    • Cost-effectiveness of treatments reducing coronary heart disease mortality in Ireland, 2000 to 2010.

      Bennett, Kathleen; Kabir, Zubair; Barry, Michael; Tilson, Lesley; Fidan, Dogan; Shelley, Emer; Capewell, Simon; Department of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, Trinity Centre for Health Sciences, St James's Hospital, Dublin, Ireland. bennettk@tcd.ie (2009-01)
      OBJECTIVE: Coronary heart disease (CHD) is associated with a large burden of disease in Ireland and is responsible for more than 6000 deaths annually. This study examined the cost-effectiveness of specific CHD treatments in Ireland. METHODS: Irish epidemiological data on patient numbers and median survival in specific groups, plus the uptake, effectiveness, and costs of specific interventions, all stratified by age and sex, were incorporated into a previously validated CHD mortality model, the IMPACT model. This model calculates the number of life-years gained (LYGs) by specific cardiology interventions to generate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) per LYG for each intervention. RESULTS: In 2000, medical and surgical treatments together prevented or postponed approximately 1885 CHD deaths in patients aged 25 to 84 years, and thus generated approximately 14,505 extra life-years (minimum 7270, maximum 22,475). In general, all the cardiac interventions investigated were highly cost-effective in the Irish setting. Aspirin, beta-blockers, ACE inhibitors, spironolactone, and warfarin for specific conditions were the most cost-effective interventions (< euro 3000/LYG), followed by the statins for secondary prevention (< euro 6500/LYG). Revascularization for chronic angina and primary angioplasty for myocardial infarction, although still cost-effective, had the highest ICER (between euro 12,000 and euro 20,000/LYG). CONCLUSIONS: Using a comprehensive standardized methodology, cost-effectiveness ratios in this study clearly favored simple medical treatments for myocardial infarction, secondary prevention, angina, and heart failure.
    • The efficacy of different models of smoke-free laws in reducing exposure to second-hand smoke: A multi-country comparison

      Ward, Mark; Currie, L; Kabir, Zubair; Clancy, L; TobaccoFree Research Institute, The Digital Depot, Thomas Street, Dublin 8, Ireland (Elsevier, 2013-02-14)
    • Oral cancer incidence and survival rates in the Republic of Ireland, 1994-2009.

      Ali, Hala; Sinnott, Sarah-Jo; Corcoran, Paul; Deady, Sandra; Sharp, Linda; Kabir, Zubair (BMC Cancer, 2016-12-20)
      Oral cancer increased significantly in both sexes between 1999 and 2009 in Ireland. Our analyses demonstrate the influence of measured factors such as smoking, time of diagnosis and age on observed trends. Unmeasured factors such as alcohol use, HPV and dietary factors may also be contributing to increased trends. Several of these are modifiable risk factors which are crucial for informing public health policies, and thus more research is needed.
    • Smoking characteristics of Polish immigrants in Dublin.

      Kabir, Zubair; Clarke, Vanessa; Keogan, Sheila; Currie, Laura M; Zatonski, Witold; Clancy, Luke; Research Institute for a Tobacco Free Society (RIFTFS), The Digital Depot, Thomas Street, Dublin, Ireland. (2008)
      BACKGROUND: This study examined two main hypotheses: a) Polish immigrants' smoking estimates are greater than their Irish counterparts (b) Polish immigrants purchasing cigarettes from Poland smoke "heavier" (>/= 20 cigarettes a day) when compared to those purchasing cigarettes from Ireland. The study also set out to identify significant predictors of 'current' smoking (some days and everyday) among the Polish immigrants. METHODS: Dublin residents of Polish origin (n = 1,545) completed a previously validated Polish questionnaire in response to an advertisement in a local Polish lifestyle magazine over 5 weekends (July-August, 2007). The Office of Tobacco Control telephone-based monthly survey data were analyzed for the Irish population in Dublin for the same period (n = 484). RESULTS: Age-sex adjusted smoking estimates were: 47.6% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 47.3%; 48.0%) among the Poles and 27.8% (95% CI: 27.2%; 28.4%) among the general Irish population (p < 0.001). Of the 57% of smokers (n = 345/606) who purchased cigarettes solely from Poland and the 33% (n = 198/606) who purchased only from Ireland, 42.6% (n = 147/345) and 41.4% (n = 82/198) were "heavy" smokers, respectively (p = 0.79). Employment (Odds Ratio [OR]: 2.89; 95% CI: 1.25-6.69), lower education (OR: 3.76; 95%CI: 2.46-5.74), and a longer stay in Ireland (>24 months) were significant predictors of current smoking among the Poles. An objective validation of the self-reported smoking history of a randomly selected sub-sample immigrant group, using expired carbon monoxide (CO) measurements, showed a highly significant correlation coefficient (r = 0.64) of expired CO levels with the reported number of cigarettes consumed (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Polish immigrants' smoking estimates are higher than their Irish counterparts, and particularly if employed, with only primary-level education, and are overseas >2 years.