Influenza surveillance in Europe. Comparing intensity levels calculated using the Moving Epidemic Method.
Ortiz de Lejarazu, Raúl
MetadataShow full item record
CitationInfluenza surveillance in Europe. Comparing intensity levels calculated using the Moving Epidemic Method. 2015: Influenza Other Respir Viruses
JournalInfluenza and other respiratory viruses
AbstractAlthough influenza-like illnesses (ILI) and acute respiratory illnesses (ARI) surveillance are well established in Europe, the comparability of intensity among countries and seasons remains an unresolved challenge.
Weekly ILI and ARI incidence rates and proportion of primary care consultations were modeled in twenty-eight countries for the 1996/1997-2013/2014 seasons using the moving epidemic method (MEM). We calculated the epidemic threshold and three intensity thresholds, which delimit five intensity levels: baseline, low, medium, high and very high. The intensity of 2013/2014 season is described and compared by country.
The lowest ILI epidemic thresholds appeared in Sweden and Estonia (below 10 cases per 100,000) and the highest in Belgium, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Serbia and Slovakia (above 100 per 100,000). The 2009/2010 season was the most intense, with 35% of the countries showing high or very high intensity levels. The European epidemic period in season 2013/2014 started in January 2014 in Spain, Poland and Greece. The intensity was between low and medium and only Greece reached the high intensity level, in weeks 7-9/2014. Some countries remained at the baseline level throughout the entire surveillance period.
Epidemic and intensity thresholds varied by country. ILI and ARI levels normalized by MEM in 2013/2014 showed that the intensity of the season in Europe was between low and medium in most of the countries. Comparing intensity among seasons or countries is essential for understanding patterns in seasonal epidemics. An automated standardized model for comparison should be implemented at national and international levels. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
- Influenza surveillance in Europe: establishing epidemic thresholds by the moving epidemic method.
- Authors: Vega T, Lozano JE, Meerhoff T, Snacken R, Mott J, Ortiz de Lejarazu R, Nunes B
- Issue date: 2013 Jul
- [Application of the moving epidemic method in the development of epidemic thresholds and tiered warning alert approachs for influenza prevention in Beijing].
- Authors: Wang Y, Zhang L, Wu SS, Duan W, Sun Y, Zhang M, Zhang XX, Zhang Y, Ma CN, Wang QY, Yang P
- Issue date: 2020 Feb 10
- Assessment of two complementary influenza surveillance systems: sentinel primary care influenza-like illness versus severe hospitalized laboratory-confirmed influenza using the moving epidemic method.
- Authors: Torner N, Basile L, Martínez A, Rius C, Godoy P, Jané M, Domínguez Á, Working Group on PIDIRAC Sentinel Surveillance of Catalonia.
- Issue date: 2019 Aug 13
- Applying the moving epidemic method to determine influenza epidemic and intensity thresholds using influenza-like illness surveillance data 2009-2018 in Tunisia.
- Authors: Bouguerra H, Boutouria E, Zorraga M, Cherif A, Yazidi R, Abdeddaiem N, Maazaoui L, ElMoussi A, Abid S, Amine S, Bouabid L, Bougatef S, Kouni Chahed M, Ben Salah A, Bettaieb J, Bouafif Ben Alaya N
- Issue date: 2020 May 10
- Influenza epidemic surveillance and prediction based on electronic health record data from an out-of-hours general practitioner cooperative: model development and validation on 2003-2015 data.
- Authors: Michiels B, Nguyen VK, Coenen S, Ryckebosch P, Bossuyt N, Hens N
- Issue date: 2017 Jan 18